4 investing gems from Warren Buffett
24 07 2007
Chandnee Sinha
July 12, 2007 14:14 IST
Warren Buffett, probably the greatest investor
of his generation, rarely communicates his investment ideas in writing
to the general public.
And why should he? If someone has that
extra edge when it comes to making money from the stock markets, he
would rather use it for himself rather than go around sharing it. But
once a year, he makes an exception to the rule and does give out his
way of thinking through the annual letter he writes to the shareholders
of Berkshire Hathaway.
Other than this he has given many speeches
over the years, which have given the general public some idea of the
way he thinks. Here are a few of these gems which he has shared with
his shareholders over the years through his letters and speeches.
1. Buy the business and not the stock
The
speech titled, 'The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville,' delivered
to the students of Columbia Business School in 1984, remains the most
famous speech that Buffett ever made.
This speech was delivered
at a seminar held to celebrate the 50 years of the publication of
Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's book
Security Analysis.
Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffett's Guru at Columbia School and all
the years that Graham taught there Buffett was his only student to have
got an A+ grade.
And Buffett, as we all know, has surely lived up
to that grade. This speech elucidated his firm belief in the principle
of value investing. Value investors, he said, "search for discrepancies
between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that
business in the market." Hence, the only thing they are bothered about
is "how much is the business worth?"
As Buffet said in the
speech, "He's not looking at quarterly earnings projections, he's not
looking at next year's earnings, he's not thinking about what day of
the week it is, he doesn't care what investment research from any place
says, he's not interested in price momentum, volume or anything. He's
simply asking: What is the business worth?"
And hence, as Buffett
points out in the speech about value investors. "While they differ
greatly in style, these investors are, mentally, always buying the
business, not buying the stock."
As we all know, the question
'how much is a business worth?' is not easy to answer and depends on
how closely the investor follows the business of the company he is
investing in and the understanding he has of that particular line of
business.
Buffett himself follows this and does not invest in
businesses he does not understand. Information technology is one sector
he has consciously stayed away from even at the height of the
technology boom.
2. Buy when the stock prices are low
One
of the peculiar things about stock markets is the fact that investors
like to buy when the markets are doing well and the stock prices are on
their way up. This is not the best way to invest given the fact that in
everyday life we like to buy more of something only when the prices are
low.
Buffett explains this point in his letter to the
shareholders for the year 1997. "A short quiz: If you plan to eat
hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should
you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are
going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer,
should you prefer higher or lower car prices?"
"These questions,"
he goes on, "of course, answer themselves. But now for the final exam:
If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you
hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many
investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net
buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock
prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice
because prices have risen for the 'hamburgers' they will soon be
buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of
equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise.
Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."
3. For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases
Getting
into stock because everyone around you is and hoping to make money from
it money successfully is not everyone's cup of tea. As more and more
investors get into the same stock, and price rises, the chances of
making money from the stock go down.
In his 2005 letter Buffett
wrote, "Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which
were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to
investing: he lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later,
'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of
men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well
have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: 'For investors as a
whole, returns decrease as motion increases.'"
4. There is a thin line separating investment and speculation
Buffett
explains this beautifully in his letter to the shareholders in the year
2000. "The line separating investment and speculation, which is never
bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market
participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates
rationality like large doses of effortless money."
"After a heady
experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior
akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the
festivities -- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have
gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in
the future -- will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they
nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.
Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before
midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in
which the clocks have no hands."